By Steven Ralston, CFA
NYSE:VNRX
READ THE FULL VNRX RESEARCH REPORT
SIGNIFICANT RECENT NEWS
VolitionRx’s (NYSE:VNRX) announcements of two significant licensing agreements in September 2025 represent the materialization of a key priority that was described during the second quarter 2025 conference call in August. During the call, CEO Cameron Reynolds relayed that the company was in confidential discussions with over 10 companies and that the negotiations at each company were at various stages, ranging from due diligence to contract finalization. He specifically indicated that the company was very close to signing its first human Nu.Q NETs licensing deal, which he anticipated would occur during the third quarter. This milestone for the company was achieved in early September.
Both licensing agreements announced in September represent tangible progress toward management's emphasized goal of securing multiple licensing agreements. These two agreements represent only the initial announcements of what management anticipates will be a stream of multiple licensing deals through the end of 2026. Several companies with which Volition is negotiating have already successfully completed technology transfer of Nu.Q onto their platforms.
On September 9, 2025, VolitionRx announced the signing of the company’s 1st human licensing deal. Specifically, the agreement is a Research License for Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) with Werfen S.A., which is headquartered in Barcelona and has eight Technology Centers located in Spain (1), Germany (1) and the United States (6). Under the out-licensing agreement, Werfen will have access to the components of Volition's Nu.Q H3.1 NETs assay and will investigate the assay’s clinical utility in managing APS patients. Werfen’s work will be conducted at its Immunoassay Technology Center, which is located in Lliçà d’Amunt (approximately 30 kilometers north of Barcelona). Volition’s Nu.Q NETs assay has already successfully transferred to Werfen’s AcuStar platform. Also, Volition and Werfen have entered into an Exclusive Commercial Option Rights Agreement for APS. APS is an autoimmune disorder that affects approximately four million people worldwide. The full terms of the agreement are confidential.
On September 29, 2025, VolitionRx announced the signing of a co-marketing and services agreement with Hologic Diagenode (NASDAQ:HOLX) for marketing Volition’s Nu.Q Discover services to Hologic's large client base and also at conferences & on webinars. The initial term is one (1) year; however, the agreement could expand into being an exclusive arrangement, subject to further terms being agreed upon.
Hologic Diagenode is a US$4 billion-revenue healthcare company with 44% of revenues in the diagnostics arena. Primarily focused on women’s healthcare, Hologic’s epigenomics services deal with biomarker discovery and validation with clients that conduct epigenetics research and develop new diagnostic tools in academic & public research organizations, create solutions for drug discovery and diagnostic tests at biotechnology & pharmaceutical companies and provide research services to Contract Research Organizations (CROs), all prime targets for Volition’s Nu.Q Discovery services. Nu.Q Discover provides drug developers and research scientists with assays for epigenetic profiling throughout the life cycle of drug development from disease model development through Phase III clinical studies.
Management anticipates securing additional licensing agreements under the Nu.Q NETs and Nu.Q Discover pillars. Negotiations continue with many companies, particularly for human diagnostic applications in the cancer and sepsis categories. In addition, within Nu.Q NETs pillar, the commercial strategy to utilize the CE Mark has brought on 11 hospital networks in Europe that are ordering and re-ordering Nu.Q products for human applications.
2025 MILESTONE TALLY AND EXPECTED PROGRESS
Nu.Q Milestones Achieved Thus Far in 2025
- During 1Q 2025, the first revenue recorded from the sales of a regulated, clinically approved product, specifically CE Marked Nu.Q NETs product from hospital networks in Europe.
- During 1Q 2025, Volition completed the first commercial sale of High Throughput Synthetic Sepsis Model that enables real-time measurement of NETs activation and inhibition in whole blood, which supports the development of new NETs-related disease therapeutics.
- During 2Q 2025, the first study to report the detection of nucleosomes in cats was completed; this pre-analytics work paves a path for the potential of cancer screening and monitoring in cats.
- During 2Q 2025, for the first time, Nu.Q Discover biomarkers will be utilized in a human clinical study, namely in a Phase 1/2b clinical trial by an unnamed leading pharmaceutical company
- In September 2025, Volition secured two significant licensing agreements
- signed company’s 1st human research Nu.Q NETs licensing deal with Werfen S.A. for Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS)
- signed co-marketing and services agreement with Hologic Diagenode for marketing Volition’s Nu.Q Discover services to Hologic's large client base
Expected Nu.Q Milestones in the Remainder of 2025
- Management anticipates securing additional licensing agreements for Nu.Q NETs in diagnostic applications in human cancer and sepsis
- Two major companies are currently evaluating Volition’s Nu.Q and Capture-Seq technologies; first evaluation results expected in the second half of 2025.
- National Taiwan University Hospital team is progressing with a pivotal final validation lung cancer screening study. Interim analysis is anticipated to be presented at the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress in October 2025.
- Potentially, the development of the Nu.Q Vet Feline Cancer Test could trigger a $5 million milestone payment in late 2025 or the first half of 2026.
VALUATION
Utilizing a financial model based on DCF methodology, which forecasts out to 2031, and uses a 10% discount rate (based on CAPM), a 2% terminal growth rate and a terminal P/S multiple of 0.49, the indicated value of VNRX is $2.95 per share.
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