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GBLI: Global Indemnity’s Discretionary Capital of $290 Million Supports Price Target of $49.00

05/11/2026

By Thomas Kerr, CFA

NASDAQ: GBLI

READ THE FULL GBLI RESEARCH REPORT

1st Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Global Indemnity Group (NASDAQ: GBLI) reported 1st quarter 2026 financial and operating results, which showed a slowdown in premium growth due to industry conditions in the E&S markets as new competition continues to enter the market. However, management expects Belmont core gross premium growth of 15–20% for 2026 and sees Wholesale Commercial returning to high-single-digit growth by the end of 2026. Gross written premiums were $96.5 million in the quarter compared to $98.7 million in the prior year period.

The wholesale commercial results in the quarter were driven by a clear shift in pricing competition in the E&S wholesale space, both from GBLI peers and from the admitted market reentering the property segments in a significant way. The crossover competition from the admitted market typically comes into play rapidly as the market turns.

Operating income came in at $8.3 million, or $0.57 per share, compared with an operating loss of ($4.1) million, or ($0.30) per share, in 2025. Net income totaled $4.1 million, or $0.29 per share, versus a net loss of ($4.1) million, or ($0.30) per share, in 2025. The 2025 numbers included $12.2 million of after-tax loss from the January 2025 California Wildfires.

Current accident year underwriting income increased 4.0% to $5.5 million in 2026 from 2025, excluding the impact of the California wildfires. The combined ratio was 94.9% with a 54.8% loss ratio. Pretax Adjusted Operating Contribution was $20.0 million and Adjusted Return on Equity was 12.5%, both in line with the prior year.

Net investment income was $12.2 million, compared to $14.8 million in the prior year period. This decline largely reflects a $2.3 million market value decline on a single limited partnership position in which the company expects to record a full recovery in the 2nd quarter of 2026. In addition, the company increased its allocation to U.S. treasury securities, which carry lower effect yields than corporate bonds.

The average duration remains roughly the same at approximately 1.0 year.

Total investment return was $6.7 million, or 1.9% annualized, compared to $19.3 million, or 5.4% in 2025, primarily driven by mark-to-market adjustments on fixed income securities due to an increase in Treasury rates, which are expected to recover.

Book yield on the investment portfolio was 4.3% at the end of the 1st quarter.

As a result of the current low duration on fixed income securities (approximately 1.0 year), the company has approximately $818 million of investments maturing throughout the rest of 2026 that can be reinvested in longer duration maturities to improve overall investment returns.

Balance Sheet

At the end of the 1st quarter, the company had unrestricted cash of $34.8 million and total investments of $1.36 billion. Approximately 97.3% of the investment portfolio consists of fixed income securities. The average credit quality of the fixed income portfolio remains at AA-. Shareholders’ equity decreased to $704.1 million. 

Valuation

GBLI book value per share was $47.92 as of March 31, 2026, compared to $48.96 as of December 31, 2025. On March 5, 2026, the Board of Directors approved a distribution (dividend) of $0.35 per common to which was paid on March 30, 2026. The current dividend yield is approximately 5.15%.

Since its 2003 initial public offering, the company has returned $654.6 million to shareholders, including $522.2 million in share repurchases and $132.4 million in dividends and distributions.

Management stated its long-term financial goals, which are:

1) Grow the overall business at a rate of 10% or higher,

2) Achieve a combined ratio in the low 90’s,

3) Manage the expense ratio to a competitive level of 36%-37%.

GBLI stock is currently selling at 55.3% of book value based on March 31, 2026, shareholders’ equity. We separate our price target into near-term and long-term objectives. Our near-term target is $49.00, which assumes GBLI stock will trade near book value per share. We maintain our long-term price target of $55.00 per share based on the stock selling at a small premium to future book value per share.

Although not a perfect comp, Bill Ackman’s Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) recently purchased Vantage Group Holdings, a privately held P&C company, for $2.1 billion. The price/book multiple for the transaction was in the 1.4x-1.5x range. Although GBLI is not for sale, and the company’s current high expense ratio may limit the ability to achieve high multiples, it nonetheless demonstrates the potential long-term upside for GBLI.

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