By Ronald Wortel, MBA, P. Eng.
NYSE:TRX
READ THE FULL TRX RESEARCH REPORT
TRX Gold Corporation (NYSE:TRX) delivered its strongest quarter to date at the Buckreef Mine in Tanzania, with production, revenue, and profitability all reaching new highs as elevated throughput met a record realized gold price. Fiscal Q3 2026 gold pours rose 58% year-over-year to 7,426 ounces, while ounces sold climbed 75% to 6,983, realized at an average price of $4,703/oz. That combination drove revenue of $32.9 million, a 59% gross margin, adjusted net income of $10.1 million, and record adjusted EBITDA of $20.7 million. Year-to-date production of 21,476 ounces, and with most of Q4 in hand, has already cleared the low end of full-year guidance (25,000–30,000 oz) with the full Q4 result still to report.
- Balance sheet strength continued to build, with cash of $26.8 million, net cash up roughly $19.1 million from year-end, a current ratio near 2.2x, and no debt or dilution events during the quarter.
- The most consequential development was the transition of the 3,500 tpd SAG/Ball mill from tendering to a fully executed contract, with initial downpayments made and completion targeted in 12–18 months — a meaningful de-risking milestone for the Company's growth plan.
Figure 1: Growing ore stockpile at Buckreef provides ongoing production backup
Plant throughput improved to 1,690 tpd and recoveries to 84.9%, both well ahead of the year-ago period, even as recovery eased modestly from Q2's 89% during a period of simultaneous equipment installations — a dynamic we view as a normal function of upgrade sequencing rather than a fundamental concern. Metallurgical testwork continues to support recoveries of 89–92%, above the 88% assumption in the 2025 PEA, while the existing 2,000 tpd plant will run alongside the new circuit to push combined capacity, and expected average annual production, above prior PEA levels.
On exploration, the Company advanced a life-of-mine plan revision pointing toward an expanded open pit and accelerated development at Eastern Porphyry and Stamford Bridge, alongside a nearly complete geophysical survey that has identified 13 new drill targets for testing in Q4 2026. An updated PEA and mineral resource estimate, incorporating higher gold price assumptions, are now guided for roughly Q2 2027.
Figure 2: Exploration and Resource drilling target on large project land package
We are maintaining our $2.40 price target, which continues to sit toward the conservative end of our $4,000–$5,000/oz gold price sensitivity range rather than at the midpoint, leaving room for upward revision pending the updated technical study. In our view, TRX shares have not yet reflected the step-change in operating performance, a gap we attribute to broader sector sentiment rather than company-specific factors.
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